Are we there yet? A debate post-mortem. Did we learn anything?

Full disclosure. I HAD to watch last night's debate on DVR. There's an American Presidential election every four years. The Cubs are on the brink of history. Easy call.

Let's get this out of the way. I think Hillary will win. Wow, that's like the opening line to an AA meeting. But I think there are ways that, in the next 20 days, she can still pull a defeat from the jaws of victory. Read on.

Pretty much almost anyone who's last name isn't Trump thought Hills won the debate last night. More broadly, pretty much anyone who watched ANY of the debates thought Hillary won all of them. In any sort of normal universe, those laws of physics apply. But the Donald is in many ways the physical personification of the Death Star. "That's no moon". He has, for better or worse, brought a new and previously unseen gravity (not to be confused with gravitas) to this election season, and there does exist the possibility that a fundamental change in something elemental, like gravity, can change the long-standing equations that have applied in the past to political physics.

The popular press was up in arms last night over the Don's refusal to preemptively accept the results of the upcoming election. It was a classic dick Trump move, and c'mon folks, did you expect anything less? But I was a bit surprised, not with Trump, who's lost the ability to shock (me) with anything he says (I'd long since abandoned any close attention to his "rhetoric"), but with the uniformity of "shocked, I'm shocked" response of the media, to what appeared to be a typical over-the-top Trumpian comment. And that, in turn, leads to the alt-universe idea of a "rigged" process.

Trump may lay claim to discovering America, but it was really Bernie who brought the idea of a rigged process into this election's lexicon (he more frequently referred to it as a "rigged economy"). And the BIG problem with this, in my view, is that he (Bernie) was proven RIGHT. Ugh. Early in the Wikileaks e-mail dump were memos from the Democratic National Committee (with friends like that, Hillary almost didn't need Trump) essentially confirming what most already suspected, that Debbie Wasserman Schultz (soon to be employed by the Clinton Foundation) and the DNC were in cahoots with Team Clinton from the start, conspiring to block any and all paths to the nomination from anyone other than Goldman Sachs. Trump just simply picked up the leftover conspiracy after Bernie folded and has run with it. It galvanizes the Trump crowd, and still maybe captures some of the Feel the Bern group that feel compelled to deny Clinton the final prize. I think it's only a few folks, but how "few" is "few", is as opaque as Bill Clinton's question of the definition of "is". Ugh again.

The second concern as we enter the eighth inning of this political World Series is the possibility that the election may be more "Brexit" than "business as usual". Although in the rear view mirror of most, the Anglophile in me still marvels at how essentially EVERY "reputable" poll of Britons voting on Britain staying in the EU has them staying, not heading for the brexits (hah, pun). As the late John McLaughlin liked to say, WRONG!

The concept of "groupthink" is nothing new in American politics or government. Think the Bay of Pigs, or Iraq, as examples of where all the smart money went the opposite way of reality. I'm not willing to bet that this time's the same, but I'm saying that it's hard to see the black swan until it's sitting at the Resolute desk with a supermodel on his lap.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resolute_desk

Wrapping things up before I get back to more important issues of the day (#GoCubsGo), I wanted to close with a musing about last night's Sealy commercial masquerading as political discourse. A simple one word description of what separates Hillary and the Donald's style is "hedge". Not hedge as in "hedge fund", but hedge as in a speaking style. Hillary, the attorney, hedges everything. "Do you love your grandchildren?". "Well, can you clarify 'love'". Donald, lacking any gap between ego and mouth, "I just start kissing them. It's like a magnet. I just kiss. I don't even wait". I can't say "ugh" enough. I think a lot of American's are more used to being around people that don't hedge, and frankly, look warily upon those that do hedge with an element of mistrust. I don't know if that little tidbit will matter, but I don't really pretend to know when a black swan is around the corner.

Did I know that the Cubs would come back from a tied game with a grand slam?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/16/sports/baseball/chicago-cubs-los-angeles-dodgers-miguel-montero.html?_r=0

Did I think the Cubs would beat San Francisco in the bottom of the ninth?

https://youtu.be/j8IB9kueOUE

It's not over 'til it's over. Or as Joe Maddon says, "it's 27 outs". My advice to the concerned? Stay engaged, and buckle your seat belt, we may encounter turbulence. Thanks for reading!

Debate #2 - Lessons from James Bond movies about sealing the deal

Full disclosure. I thought there was a chance (no more than 10%) that this would be my last blog post, 'cause this game was gonna be OVER! Seriously, comments that would make Mike Ditka blush should in normal times be enough iceberg to sink several Titanics, yet here I am, writing a debate post-script that the game's not over, and there's still time on the clock. Sorry, just being honest (IMO). If it makes you feel any better, I still think the race is her's to lose. But you better keep reading.

Why I blog (about politics). Because I'm a self-described independent, and listening to the partisan talking heads on TV makes me crazy (but I still watch). Tonight is no different, as the spin started the moment the debate ended. Here's my story... (cue "Law and Order" theme music):

Who won? Donald Trump didn't lose, so he won a reprieve to live (and campaign) another day. Hillary Clinton didn't win tonight, and frankly, she should have. Hence the James Bond analogy. As everyone knows, the reason there's been so many James Bond movies is that the bad guys refuse to simply kill him. Quickly. But noooo!

They have to launch into a lengthy exposition as to why they're so smart, Bond's so stupid, blah blah blah. All the while 007 is wriggling out of his wrist restraints, and voila! he's free, bad guy's dead, the British Empire survives. No Hillary, the real world outside of Goldman Sachs isn't like that. It's less Sean Connery as James Bond, and more like Sean Connery in The Untouchables.
Question number 2 (early) of tonight's debate had to do with the recently revealed (but 10 year old) tape of the Donald being his disgusting self. Trump described it as "locker room banter" and Hillary pretty much let him claim that ground. It was unambiguously disgusting, and she should have pummeled him on the head with that mace until she was pulled off of his bruised and bloodied body by Martha Raddatz and Anderson Cooper. Perhaps (and I'm giving Team Clinton the benefit of the doubt) there was a concern over backlash regarding Bill Clinton's prior transgressions, but if that were the case, they doubly lost, because the Donald went there too, and hammered Hillary for that one as well. I think many of the viewing public were waiting for Hillary to go Rhonda frickin' Rousey on him, and I suspect that much of 'merica wanted a ringside seat to this Octagon fight. And they simply didn't get it. Bad strategery, Hills. Should have brought in Aroldis Chapman to close.

What did we get? More (insane) Trump sniffling. Really, there have to be allergists in NYC that don't hate you. Hillary. Shut. Up. Make a point, it doesn't even have to be true, hit him over his orange head with it, then move on. DON'T go 'splainin, to try and please me, 'cause I don't care about details. This is a TV debate, NOT a collegiate debate. Jeez, isn't there someone in the campaign (I'm talkin' to you, Mark Cuban) that can tell Hills that professors don't win elections, celebrities do. It infuriates me. No one, and I mean even those who hate her, will deny that she's not super smart. But she's trying to be that know-it-all kid you didn't like in high school. We didn't like her then. We still don't like her now. And now she's rich. Ugh.

Donald Trump redefines gross. There's no way he should be President. He doesn't appear to be too smart, and to make matters worse he doesn't even seem like he's trying to learn. He was born with a silver spoon in his mouth, and if you don't recall my prior Barry Switzer quote, it refers to being born on third base and thinking you hit a triple. Guilty on all counts. So why is he still here? Here are the minor reasons. Like him or (more likely) hate him, you FEEL something for him, and that counts for something. He engages (and enrages) people, hence we care. Next, his simply amazing unpredictability careens between revolting verbal diarrhea one day, to succinct, cut to the chase comments that distill a complex issue into a concise sound bite. It's not NPR, but hardly anyone listens to NPR. Get it?

No, the big reason he's still around is that she's simply a flawed candidate. The only reason she's around is that 1) she cheated Bernie in the primary, and 2) she has all the money. Much of America is desperate for change. How desperate? Donald Trump desperate, that's how much. No, she's not trusted. No, she's not liked. No, she doesn't really care about the poor and downtrodden. But she knows the status quo, and how the Washington game is played. She's vanilla, and not even French Vanilla. As a country we may not do much better, but we're unlikely to do much worse. It's not flashy, but it's steady.

But how many folks are out there that hope for more? Maybe you worked for Carrier. Maybe you are in the mining industry (fracking, coal, you name it). Maybe you're the millennial barista working at Starbucks that Hillary was talking about during the fundraiser at George Clooney's house. Maybe you got health insurance through Obamacare and you've just learned your policy either got cancelled or your premiums will increase by 50% next year. Maybe you're willing to roll the dice.

As I finish this post CNN's post debate poll called Hillary the winner, 57% to 34%. If you want to believe that, it's called confirmation bias. Look it up. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is stealing a line from Monty Python and the Holy Grail. Not dead yet.


Can it get any uglier. Don't count it out. Well, another month or so of blogging, thanks for reading! Good night.

If a Tree Falls in the Forest... a VP Debate recap

Full disclosure. I fell asleep during the post-debate spinfest last night; it was that boring and predictable. So the following thoughts, as usual, are mostly my own, but if they sound like you've heard them before maybe I was channeling CNN whilst my eyes were shut.

I'd venture to bet that this may have been the most-viewed VP debate in history. Total viewership may even hit 4 digits. Maybe.

Mike Pence won the debate last night. The bar was low. Really low. Only three hurdles, he cleared them all, like an Olympic equestrian show jumper. Number one. Say at least one full sentence that doesn't include the faux-word "bigly". Two, don't get yourself dirty in the sandbox called "facts". Three, when in doubt, shut up. Like I said, he cleared those hurdles easily.

Surprisingly (to me), Tim Kaine underperformed, which as a net result puts another log in my "Clinton is running an awful campaign" fire, which was already burning brightly. His bar was similarly low, like Pence's, but it's my suspicion he was directed by the campaign to "zig", when he should have "zagged". After Hillary's solid performance at the first debate, Kaine could have calmly (didn't happen) and personably (smiling like Howdy Doody isn't enough) articulated what is (again, to me) a clearly more broadly appealing platform. But instead, they (the campaign) feel that doubling down on the "Trump is dangerous" attack line is the way to a Democratic victory next month. For their sake I hope so, 'cause history may not look fondly on a Presidential candidate that loses to Donald Trump. Ultimately, like Wells Fargo or Donald Trump's taxes, the ball rolls from the top, and nobody rich goes to jail. I think that the root of all I don't like about how the Clinton campaign has been run comes from the very top itself, Hillary. I think she has the impression is that people won't like her enough to vote for her, hence the strategy of just savaging her opponent. That's a strategic choice, so I'll respect that even if I disagree.

My fave part of the debate was the last, the discussion about abortion rights. Not because abortion is my "fave", but because it gave both candidates a comfortable topic (really) on which they could articulate, eloquently even, their positions, however nuanced. For a topic that's such a "line in the sand" for many, discussing it comprehensively is an under appreciated skill that both Kaine and Pence handled very well. Without reading too much into it (hah, too late!), on that topic alone I have a solid amount of respect for both of them, even with their disparate positions, because I actually trust that they believe what they're saying. Heck, I'd venture if the election were held today either of them would beat the tops of the respective tickets. Easily. But wake up and smell the fetid reality.

On that sour milk note I'll sign off. Only a month to go, vote early and often, and thanks for reading.

Doing What It Takes To Win

Full disclosure. I feel the frequent need to recap where I stand this election season. I'm an open Bernie supporter, otherwise I consider myself an independent. So there. The context may or may not be important.

If I were writing this post Wednesday, in the aftermath of the first Presidential debate, and the day after the Donald Trump vs. Miss Universe dust up, I'd be writing from a completely different perspective. Because on Wednesday, after what seemed like an unrehearsed and unhinged ("bigly"?) debate performance, doubled down by Trump's subsequent attacks on the former Miss Universe now employed by Team Clinton, I was pretty confident that finally, finally Donald's 15 minutes/weeks/months of fame were in the last call stage.



La Donna E Mobile. Woman is fickle. Actually, I'm referring to me, not Hillary. I just love this song (it's from Rigoletto - Verdi). The tangential reference to being fickle is that, in the 48 hours between Wednesday and Friday, I went from thinking "this race is (effectively) over, let's move on to something interesting" to "Whoa. Wait a minute". So what happened (to me)? Read on.

I spent too much time Wednesday trying to understand how someone so undisciplined and seemingly unaware could have gotten this far, to the doorstep of the Presidency? Along the way laying to waste upteen other professional hacks that have spent their careers and millions of their supporters shekels grasping for the brass ring. The more common descriptors for the Donald have seemed to me inadequate in fully capturing, concisely, what exactly it is that makes him so...yucky. Then it hit me (figuratively, not "literally", as the cool kids say). Donald Trump is dumb. Not dumb as in uneducated, him being the "Wharton School of Business" alumnus (I'm sure Penn hides under the table whenever that's mentioned). Dumb, as in a utter lack of awareness, of self-consciousness, of perceptions of others, of social norms and cultural standards, you name it, he doesn't have it. Unless you include bravado. He has that in excess.

"Dumb Donald Trump" was my theme heading into the weekend's blogging, and I was mentally building my case Friday when serendipity intervened and I happened to hear a clip on the radio of Trump during a deposition, where he was answering questions about his speeches lambasting Mexicans as illegals and criminals. The deposition Donald Trump was so different from Presidential candidate Donald Trump that it would have made a great episode of Star Trek, when aliens inhabit the body of Captain Kirk and his personality becomes someone else's. Then it struck me (again, figuratively). "Am I being played?" by Donald J. Trump, star of The Apprentice and king of reality TV? Could the Donald, in fact, be the next B-list Republican actor to become President? Maybe...

So this week's blog is supposed to be about "what does Donald/Hillary need to do now to win?". Let's start with Trump first, building on my budding "he's an actor" theory. It'll be brief. Win or lose, it's absolutely all in for the Trumpster. If he loses, it's 100% due to his own unfiltered choices. But if he wins... he did it a la Frank Sinatra, "My Way".



How 'bout Hill? Similarly easy, but even easier after you've watched the skewering she got from Kate McKinnon during this skit on SNL this weekend. Hillary has just one month in which to get voters, any voters, to like her JUST a little. Just. A. Little. Not a lot, just a little. Can't say it enough. Ms. Clinton, do something, almost anything, that IS spontaneous. Not "planned spontaneous", because, as Ms. McKinnon so deftly points out, people will know. Which people? Everyone. May I make a suggestion? Next time you're in New York, take your grandchild to the park. If you can't sincerely enjoy being with your grandkid for a short photo op you simply don't deserve to be President, and I'm likely to vote for Trump out of spite. "I don't want to make my family a part of this campaign?" Shut up, you're lying again. Just do it. You're welcome.

Look at Hell tonight, it may have frozen over, because I'm close to agreeing with Michael Moore.



Sorry to close with a warning, but if you believe in global climate change, then you should take to heart Mr. Moore's dire prediction. Running on the current platform, as the Clinton campaign has done, that "Donald Trump is a crazy guy with crazy ideas and the wrong temperament", gets a lot weaker in the next few weeks if some alternate-universe Donald Trump begins to show up that isn't as crazy, who doesn't have crazy ideas, and isn't the racist misogynist he plays on TV. Now that would be scary, just in time for Halloween. In short, Hillary, give me the reason. You've got a month. Don't blow it.