Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Election Post-script. Notes for Dejected Americans

Full disclosure. In a statement intended to surprise no one, I'm a political junkie. And have been for quite a while. Long enough to watch the pendulum swing both ways. Long enough to know this isn't the end of the Republic. So was last night a surprise? Duh, yeah, but honestly, not on the same scale as the Cubs winning the World Series (#GoCubsGo). But very much not outside the realm of probability (Nate Silver, of fivethirtyeight.com fame, wins again). Analysis can wait for a subsequent post, mostly because there's too much smoke in the air, and the wounds are still too fresh. This post has a different intent. While not a identified Democrat, or for that matter an identified liberal, today's post is addressed to those who are disheartened at the outcome of last night's election. Believe me (sorry, had to throw that in there), there are silver linings. Here are a few.

1. This was NOT a repudiation of the ideals of the Democratic Party. The Dems have long been viewed as the standard bearers of the American working class, until recently personified by union workers, teachers, public servants, police and fire, manufacturing. College educated or not. There's at least half the population that thinks that there are significant headwinds facing working class Americans, and one of the many takeaways from last night is that the desperation is real. Real enough for people to roll the dice on something, anything that might offer a chance. The Democratic Party has, in my lifetime, has always been closer to the hearts of the public, if not necessarily the wallets. But having a compassionate heart can be challenging when hope, in the form of economic stability and opportunity, is waning or lost. Americans have ALWAYS been, as a people, off-the-scale charitable, compared to other countries. I don't think that's gone anywhere.

2. The late Mario Cuomo said it best. "You campaign in rhetoric, you govern in prose". I very strongly suspect that any references to walls, repealing Obamacare, and indictments, will be coming only from members of the losing party and the paid talking media heads, and they're entitled to protest with vigor. But IMO most Americans, of both parties, won't be listening. The campaign is OVER, now the process shifts to expectations and actions. And I suspect that the incoming government will be quickly looking at how they can get some quick wins, but no one said winning was easy. Now get to work. We're watching. An acquaintance said some year's ago, "the losing party earns the right to bitch". True.

3. It's still a divided government, and it's a good thing. Despite claims to the contrary, this was absolutely NOT a victory for the "right". Yeah, Mike Pence is the VP-elect. When someone can give me a list of accomplishments credited to a VP in the last 40 years I'll reconsider. And yes, I'll grant you Al Gore invented the internet. But a new right wing victory? Nah, if that were the case we'd be talking President-elect Cruz (ugh.). Let's call it what it is, a center-right President-elect. Pro-choice? He was always your guy, so Roe v. Wade isn't going anywhere. Supreme Court? The second amendment won't go the way of 13th floors. Obamacare? Well, no one anywhere didn't think it needed to be fixed, so let the new guy deal with it. But we're not going to turn into a police state in January. Unlike the other potential GOP candidates, this Pres-elect arrives nearly chit-free (well, if you don't include Russia [that's a joke people]). He owes about no one in D.C., and that's liberating in an unheard-of fashion. BUT...unlike the lesson President Obama learned the hard way, there is a "way of getting things done" in Washington, that that way will go through one guy. Paul Ryan. It will be an interesting evolution of a relationship. Could be "Lethal Weapon", could be "The Odd Couple". We'll see. But it absolutely won't be a blank slate for the Tea Party. They'll continue talking to themselves, like they're not taking their meds.

4. The Democratic Party 2.0. I'll be very upfront here, I think the successes of the prior Clinton years have, not unexpectedly, led to a slow, steady, and stealthy shift from the "party of the people" to the "party of the status quo", funded by the interests of those who'd greatly benefitted from the economy of the 80's and 90's. Wall Street, big business, union leaders (NOT rank and file workers). Democrats in power turned into Chamber of Commerce Republicans. But power does that to people, it's human nature. Why be optimistic? Look who's in the on deck circle. My man Bernie. My almost fave Warren. My real fave Tulsi. My other fave and new badass Senator from Illinois, Tammy Duckworth. The bench, IMO, finally has the chance to emerge from a heavy yoke. Sorry, but I'm optimistic. Theo Epstein would be proud of these new Cubs.

My fellow Americans, this isn't like The Empire Strikes Back, when Luke disregards Yoda's pleas to stay and complete his training (Dagobah, it's no Cancun). Hope isn't lost. The purview of this democracy is, now more than ever, the ability to air and debate diverse and often conflicting ideas, with the short term judges the voting public, and the long term judge history.

Closing with yet another over religious reference, a Portuguese proverb. "God writes straight with crooked lines". I hope it applies here too.

A few more posts, then I'll probably shut this down and get on with life. Thanks as always for reading!


Wednesday, November 2, 2016

The Briefest Voting Guide You'll Read

Full disclosure. For long time readers (hah, seriously), thanks for following along this self-indulgent journey, I hope at times it was entertaining. If you were/are a serious partisan and felt somehow that I didn't afford the political process the gravitas our fine country deserved, yea, you came to the wrong blog. But if you're a fan of the process, the democracy that allows the rich diversity of opinion to shape our country, well...this has been for you.

A lot of posts ago I paraphrased Yoda by saying "vote, or don't vote. there is no try". Or something like that. And I still mean it. Here's my bottom line. I would suggest you do something, vote Hillary, vote Trump, don't vote, whatever. But perhaps do something that you can look back on in the future and say, "yea, I did that". Of course, being unable to predict the future (yes, I'm talking to you. ALL of you), this recommendation has it's caveats. So this brief election guide will try and distill some of the perspectives (NB. it's not a pro/con of the issues, 'cause that's crap. they're all lying at this point)

In the broadest possible brushstrokes, here's my gestalt:

Status quo (which is/isn't a bad thing, you decide). Hillary. I think for the most part things stay the same. An evolution of the Affordable Care Act. Largely the same level of regulation (Wall St., etc...) as we currently have. Minimal/no change in foreign policy, same of domestic policy/entitlements. Like I said, status quo.

Unhappy with status quo? Trump. Yea, it's a crap shoot of sorts, but it's not the end of the Republic as we know it. Actually, probably not even as much as some/many wish for, the whole "drain the swamp" rhetoric. Why? Because, like I believe is true with the economy in general, the President actually has a lot LESS power and influence over broad issues like the economy than he/she thinks they do, and even if they wield a modicum of influence, often times (changes in monetary policy, trade policy, etc...) the effects of those changes don't necessarily coincide with the 4/8 years of a Presidential term, ie the effect may not be linked to the cause. Confusing? Sorry. I think the "finger on the nuclear button" was a weak campaign attack, akin to the "3 am phone call" Hillary tried on Obama, the guy who ultimately got Osama Bin Laden. But I'm leaving the 10th inning postgame show for next week after the election.

Dislike both candidates? I'm completely comfortable with active non-voting. If you stand up publicly and defend your choice/candidate, I understand. Remember, I'm a Bernie guy (sorry to rub that in there). I would have also been a Biden guy. A Bush guy. An O'Malley guy. Probably a Kasich guy. Probably NOT a Cruz guy. So there. No, I wasn't looking for perfection. I think that's always unrealistic. But my last (almost) Bernie plug. Someone I actually believed gave a damn. I don't think that's true with either of the current choices, hence my comfort with non-voting. Ultimately they're both a bad cocktail of self interest mixed with special interests. Typical Washington.

Issues? No. Please be assured that both sides would sell you the Brooklyn Bridge (a promissory note) if they thought it would get your vote. But will either do what they say, good or bad? Doubt it. And remember, the POTUS doesn't make laws, that's Congress. (someone please let Donald know)

That's it, brief. Ish. If you already read the blog you're engaged enough for me, so congrats! Make a choice and be cool with it. Here's a true anecdote for the close. I spend a good deal of time with a large group of people I'm pretty confident don't vote. Not because they're not affected, because they very obviously are, as they get government assistance. No, they don't vote because they long ago lost hope. Hope that, regardless of who's in power, there's really someone in high office that gives two s*&ts about the poor, the homeless, veterans, the mentally ill, the down and outs. And I agree with them. This election is about who holds the keys to the kingdom, not who cares for the least among us (hah, spend the whole post trying to work in an obtuse Biblical reference. Score! Sorry/not sorry if you've offended, here's another one). Rejoice, and be glad. This will all be over next week.

Unless Egg McMuffin wins Utah, and Hills and the Don are tied in the Electoral College. Damn, now that would be something.

As always, thanks for reading!