Back-ish

Full disclosure. I started this blog simply because I wanted to refrain from posting political comme

ntary on Facebook (and some friends thought it'd be fun - it has been). So I chronicled my extemporaneous (thanks Jim Comey) thoughts on the 2016 Presidential election from April, 2016, and wrapped things up shortly after the Inauguration, on February, 2017. Since then, I've continued to follow American politics like a Mexican telenovela, but have left the opinionating to others. Today I somewhat accidentally broke my self-imposed ban on Facebook political punditry, and while I got a lot of comments I still am leery about Fb serving as a forum for anything resembling nuanced rhetoric (face to face in a bar/pub still wins on that count). So to continue the Facebook discussion I started, I'm jumping off and bringing the topic over to the blogosphere. I'm still not running for office, so I'll continue to be unfiltered. Just not on Facebook. Thanks for reading.

So here's my Facebook post that started this second coming of the blog:

Posting this so I can look back a year from now and see if I'm right. He'll resign before he gets impeached (and only after he pardons himself and his family in perpetuity).

And here's the question that prompted me to answer here in the blog:

Please clarify if you indeed mean "before impeachment" or "between impeachment and likely conviction." Also curious if you're assuming Ds take the Senate.

So many variables! I feel like Dr. Strange at the end of Avengers: Infinity War, there are so many possible outcomes, yet reality will ultimately divine one answer. Here's my guess.

President Trump is President not only because of the Russians (haha, that's supposed to be a joke), but perhaps even more due to his almost savant-like ability to read public sentiment. He was popular (enough) to get himself elected. End of story. Yes, of course you can hate him. But JUST enough people liked/loved him that not only was he elected, but if impeachment isn't in the cards he'll win reelection. But if he wins round 2 it'll be mostly on the basis of a strong economy, not because he's up for a Nobel Prize (he's not, don't worry).

Some truisms. Donald Trump cares (only) about Donald Trump. Politicians care about being re-elected. Currently those two trains are running on the same track, in the same direction, but there's no laws of physics that say that this steady state will last forever, and in fact many a pundit has fallen face-first claiming that "----" scandal/controversy will finally spell the end to the Trump Presidency, only to be proven wrong by poling that shows the President's support stronger than ever.

So what's different this time, or is it simply my turn to cry "wolf"? I think the recent guilty plea by the President's former personal attorney, Michael Cohen, might ultimately prove to be a watershed event. Yes, he pleaded guilty to some campaign finance violation regarding payment to Stormy Daniels and/or Karen McDougal, and perhaps some taxi cab nonsense, but seriously, who cares? Playboy magazine is either bankrupt or extinct, and the same goes for taxis in the age of Uber. That's just fluff. But.... Mr. Cohen has been suggested as having served as a go-between between then real estate mogul Donald Trump and nefarious figures who may have extended financing when Mr. Trump was overextended in Atlantic City, and before his second act via "The Apprentice". There were some salad days back then, and I'm reasonably sure there weren't enough Trump Steaks sold to make up the difference. I don't think it's rocket science to suspect that wealthy and influential Russians made up that difference.

I'm pretty confident that Special Counsel Robert Mueller will ultimately unravel the tangled web of paper trails and electronic fund transfers, and in exchange for sentencing leniency Mr. Cohen may light the way like Indiana Jone in Raiders of the Lost Ark.

Answering a rhetorical question, "why didn't Manafort flip?", it's the simple calculus between "I've got enough co-mingled dirt with you (President Trump) that you better pardon my ass" versus "there's no amount of cooperation I can offer to keep me out of prison for my misdeeds". He's shutting up expecting a pardon, or he'll take Trump down with him. He's just waiting.

So yes, I'm expecting that Mr. Mueller will indeed find evidence of misdeeds, most likely this one:

The Federal Election Campaign Act states in unambiguous terms that any contribution by a foreign national to the campaign of an American candidate for any election, state or national, is illegal.

The likely path is that the Special Counsel's office refers the matter to the House of Representatives, who can, if they choose, AND if the Democrats are in charge, draft articles of impeachment.

***Here's my answer to the Facebook question*** (damn, that took a while)

Mr. Trump does NOT care about "the rule of law". He does NOT care about the Republican Party, and believe it or not, he doesn't (directly) even care about being reelected.

He cares about money. His money.

Money he got fair and square from his Russian friends, funneled unfairly and unsquarely into the various nooks and crannies of the Trump Organization. If Mr. Cohen helps the Special Counsel see the workings behind that scheme, then I think it's very likely Mr. Trump starts looking for the exit door. If he isn't looking already. As the saying goes, it's all about the Benjamins.

Answer to the Facebook question: BEFORE impeachment.

As the well-paid advisors would say, "control the narrative", i.e. "it's a witch hunt by the Democrats, blah blah blah".

Answer to part two of the question, "do the D's take the Senate?". Doubtful.

I'm not even confident that Wisconsin keeps a Democratic Senator. Sorry, but Dane County is not representative of the State at large. Baldwin/Vukmir is the contest to watch this November in Wisconsin, and if I were to prognosticate I think it's very, very possible that Ms. Vukmir rides Governor Walker's coattails to victory. Fact: if Tony Evers were such a good candidate, he wouldn't have had eleven (ELEVEN!) candidates running against him in the Democratic primary. Sorry folks, that's just reality talking. I definitely could be wrong on this one, and we just has historic flooding in Dane County, so I guess anything's possible.

Some liner notes as I wrap up this special edition blog post. "Can a President pardon himself?" I've not heard definitively anywhere that it CAN'T be done, so I guess that the answer is "maybe". I also think we may find out. But consider this. IF this scenario occurs, who would have the stomach and political intestinal fortitude to litigate this in the courts? Republicans? Do invertebrates have spines? Neither does the GOP, who would prefer this ugly and disastrous chapter in the now-laughable "Party of Lincoln" to go into salvage mode. The Democrats? If ever a party knew how to salvage defeat from the jaws of victory, it's the former (I hope) party of Hillary. They'd rather (and correctly) use a Trump resignation as a bully pulpit upon which to heap scorn upon the GOP like Shimei upon King David (2 Samuel 16; 6-8). Biblical it truly is.

The practical relevance of all this is that, ultimately, it'll be President Trump who leave the Trump faithful, not the other way around. The professional politicians who until then who had been riding the Trump coat tails will then be left scrambling for voters like kids chasing after gumballs from a broken gumball machine.

Long-winded as usual, but there was some catching up to do. Maybe we can chat over beers, that'd be fun.