Full disclosure. This GOP Convention has been a bit like one too many times through the line at Old Country Buffet. Can't resist, sometimes it's just too tempting.
Take home message. He might win.
A quick business school lesson about strategy is relevant here. A yugge part of a good strategy is deciding what you DON'T want to do, so you don't waste time/money/effort that is better spent elsewhere. Did you know, gentle reader, that the percentage of the voting electorate that is white, non-Hispanic is about 70%? (Pew Research). Let's cut to the chase. Trump simply wants a larger share of this largest share. That's it. Simple. There's no Plan B. If you look at everything Trump and the GOP says and does between now and November through this very simple prism, then you'll have 20/20 insight into their game plan. It's really that simple. Everything else is just static. Trump's path to success is getting a larger share of the white vote.
As promised, I watched much of this week's GOP convention so you wouldn't have to, and before the paint is even dry on Donald Trump's acceptance speech, I've already sorted out the wheat from the chaff of the convention, and as they have as a saying somewhere, we'll see if this dog will hunt.
Day 1 highlights. Or highlight, 'cause all everyone will remember from day 1 is Melania Trump successfully combining her Derek Zoolander persona with Michelle Obama's words for a great speech that unfortunately was already given eight years ago. Sure, there were other speakers, but c'mon, they were nothing but filler, and if you're interested, they included a guy from Duck Dynasty, a few Navy Seals (one was the guy they did the "Lone Survivor" movie about), the long-winded general who was on the VP list, and well after bedtime Joni Ernst, the freshman Senator from Iowa famous for making a TV commercial about castrating pigs. Their speeches should have been plagiarized, because they were boring. The prototypical convention fare.
Day 2 was highlighted, correctly, with a speech by Donald Trump, Jr., who honestly did a pretty good job representing the Rich Kids of Instagram. It was catnip for the red-state crowd, which was the only intended audience, as it was Day 2, with the only other audience on TV being losers like yours truly. I think Chris Christie spoke also, but it was typical Christie, fire and brimstone and he's not the VP, so merely an afterthought.
Day 3 was entertaining as it was Ted Cruz's Waterloo. Political junkie or not, a train wreck is a train wreck, and in his case, intentionally stirring up hatred of himself among those who are probably his only potentially sympathetic group outside of blood relatives is just plain stupid, but I'm no fan. His completely self-absorbed death wish was jaw-dropping, and like a blue moon (the first one being Melania's cribbed speech on day one), it sucked all the oxygen away from Mike Pence's otherwise milquetoast introductory VP speech. By the way, Governor Pence is the VP nominee. You can forget about him again.
All of this brings us to day 4 and the only part of any consequence (claimed by none other than David Plouffe, Obama's 2008 campaign manager, who was in attendance in Cleveland), Donald Trump's acceptance speech. Yes, Ivanka rocked the house, but with all due respect, she had already set a high bar for herself; she cleared it in style. The Don is speaking right now as I type. I'm not really listening because it's nothing that hasn't been said a thousand times before. I'm really listening for style and tone, and I get it. Turning the populist dial to a thousand, subtly turn down the not-too-subtle misogyny and bigotry (but just a little), and there you have the campaign game plan on to November. Talk about message discipline. Make America Great Again. Repeat over and over until November. That's it. Crazy thing is, it might be enough.
Notes for the Clinton campaign. Please Hillary, don't listen to folks like your man Van Jones (talking head on CNN) who is constantly complaining about the lack of a policy specifics being presented during the GOP convention. It's funny watching his fellow commentators look at him like he either had too little sleep or too much coffee, because that's simply crazy talk from a guy who probably TIVOs C-SPAN. Hillary, do not talk policy, as much as you might want to, 'cause that's the stuff of NyQuil. Say what you want, but the GOP Convention has been nothing but must-see TV for political junkies, a NASCAR race where there's a crash EVERY SINGLE NIGHT. It's politics in the Octagon. Talking about policy is basically saying "please turn the channel and see if there's a rerun of The Walking Dead". Anything will Trump (pun intended) a discussion of policy. Don't take the bait.
Go 'Merica's advice to Clinton-world on the eve of the Democratic Convention. Less Clinton (Hillary), more Clooney (George). You own Hollywood, you own Silicon Valley, you own Wall Street. Make them work for you, 'cause they have almost as much at stake as you do. My suggestion for the Dems. Target the young voter. They mostly hate Trump. They're underrepresented in the polls. They're perhaps a little more resistant to populist rhetoric, as most haven't had firsthand experience in having their entry level jobs moved overseas. Yet. So yes, get the cool kids, the popular kids, the rich kids. The Kanyes. The Kims. The Swiftees (well, that's not gonna happen). Hell, get the Black Eyed Peas back together again. Whatever you do, don't talk about Brexit, don't talk monetary policy. Please please please. Don't take that bait.
Bears repeating, I don't have an active bet in this game. I'm a Bernie guy, so basically I put my money on a horse that lost. Now I'm just handicapping the contest ahead. And the GOP, despite the naysayers, put on a strong opening salvo. I'll be back next week with how the Clintons respond. Hold on and stay tuned.
Last notes. Haters of all persuasions, don't be discouraged. Presidents are term-limited.
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