Thursday, July 14, 2016

The GOP Convention Viewing Guide

Full disclosure. This is your guide, gentle readers, not mine. I anticipate I'll watch and parse every minute I'm able, with toothpicks to keep my eyes open when they really (and I mean really) should be shut. That is definitely not the advice I'm giving you. I'm just letting you know that you'll be able to come to the blog in the convention aftermath, after the talking heads have moved on, to get the straight dope on where the crazy train is heading when it leaves Cleveland. "Mistake on the lake" was never a more appropriate tagline for a city. Sorry, Cleveland, but at least you have the Cavs.

My advice to watching the GOP Convention. Don't. Really. That's why cable TV was created.



Sorry, that doesn't mean no blog this week, but really, the Convention is what, 28 days long? There's nothing, and I mean NOTHING, of even passing interest that won't be all over regular TV, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram within seconds of it happening. Hell, I have no doubt (like no doubt) that come time for the presumptive nominee of the GOP, Donald J. Trump, to give his acceptance speech, a Pokemon will suddenly appear out of the orange forest he calls his hair, and millennials all over the nation will jump out of their confederate flag Snuggies and raise their smartphones in victory. Or something like that. Like sports psychologists say, don't watch the Convention, let the Convention come to you.

Donald's dilemma.




The vast overwhelming majority of Americans, voters or otherwise, can name only one of the items pictured above. The other is watching the other one dry. What might your blogger have against the plesant conservative Governor from the great state of Indiana? Nothing, which is exactly why he's simply a ridiculous choice for a VP to the nothing-if-not-volatile el Presidente Trump. Yea yea yea, he's a conservative, yes, he's an evangelical, yea he's white, yea, he's from Indiana a swing state. I think absolutely none of that matters in this black swan of an election season. The "safe" candidate is probably the worst choice that Trump could possibly make, and I'll give you reasons why that's the case as well as the "what the hell are they thinking" that got them to the doorstep of Governor Pence as VP candidate.

Let's use a very unfortunate yet timely analogy. What are the odds that ISIS thinks that, by buying a few aircraft carriers and an M1 Abrams tank or two, that they will suddenly be competitive with the Allied coalition? ISIS may be religious zealots, but they are not stupid religious zealots. The Donald has not gotten to the doorstep of the Convention by being anything close to conventional, why on Earth does he start now? Well, here's my attempt at election psychology 101, and it starts with fear. Fear? Yup, it all begins with fear. On the cusp of something that no sane human would have thought possible 12 months ago, the Don is close to the starting gate of the ultimate horse race, the race for the Presidency of the United States. Now THIS close to the that previously unimaginable goal, there's a heightened level of anxiety amongst the Trump camp that the stakes are too high to be playing insurgent any longer. This anxiety is, IMO, most likely manifest amongst the Trump male children, followed by Paul Manafort, Trump's campaign manager, then Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, followed by Ivanka, who quite honestly doesn't really need this shit. The Trump juniors likely (and rightfully) see this as their entree into an echelon of society that money can't buy. For Manafort, this is redemption for his political rivals that see him as nothing but a B-list politico. For Kushner, I unfortunately suspect this is really an attempt to even the score with Chris Christie, who as US Attorney successfully prosecuted Kushner's father, a big hitter real estate developer in New York. Lastly, why might Ivanka not be on the Pence train? One, I do believe she's the brains in the outfit (and thus agrees with me) that Pence is a mainstream anchor to the Trump rocket. Two, she's very much Daddy's girl, and as such likely things like her father more than any of the inner circle. And her father wants Christie.



Yes, I still believe that Petraeus is a much better choice than even Christie, but we can't always get what we want, and maybe that's the case with Trump as well. Petraeus may simply have said, "NFW", or...maybe he's a surprise visitor to Cleveland. There's always hope. But Christie is a solid choice, for no more than the simple reason that Trump likes him, and this would easily be the most Penn and Teller-like campaign EVER, and who could resist that? But quasi-seriously, Christie is likable (sorry Dems, he really is likable, you can continue to hate his policies), articulate on the stump, and LOVES a fight. He's simply a great VP candidate. Petraeus just brings a lot more gravitas to the table, and would do a lot to reassure the 3 remaining countries in the EU that we've still got their backs.

Wow, a long blog post for a Convention I'm warning you not to watch, but if you're still wanting to set the Tivo, here's some hints. Paul Ryan will give an impassioned, yet boring, speech trying to show Americans that the GOP really does care. Will not sway a single vote. Scott Walker will pander to the crowd, and will only mention taking on the unions about a million times. Melania Trump will do her very best Derek Zoolander impersonation and will be unintentionally hilarious. Ivanka will seal the deal to replace Kelly Ripa on "Ivanka and Derek (Jeter)". Newt Gingrich will be time to take a potty break. And the Don? Watch that, it should actually be something. And it will very possibly make the Clinton camp nervous. Can't wait.

Next time, either a "VP told ya so" or a "Live from the Democratic Convention" edition of the blog. Whatever seems more apropos. Thanks for reading!

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