686,000 Wisconsin voters may have rescued America from a Trump presidency (number of GOP voters who chose someone other than the Donald). Denying the Donald a yugge delegate haul in the Badger state made his road to 1237 delegates a rocky road, one that is at this point pretty daunting, yet still one that only Trump has a realistic chance to make. For several weeks Kasich has been as relevant as the NFL Pro Bowl, and unless your name is Ted Cruz, no one thinks he has a plausible path to 1237. The smart money says it'll be a contested convention, but what might that entail, and how do you separate the rhetoric from the lies? The blog this week crystal balls not the upcoming contest in New York, but where this Crazy Train might ultimately end up this summer, and why (or why not).
Full disclosure. While I'm an independent, this cycle I'm a Bernie guy (simply too old to be a "Bernie Bro". Or anyone's "bro", for that matter). I attended his rally, I voted for him, and even donated $27 (FOMO I guess, but I got bumper stickers). At this point I don't think he has a realistic chance to win the Democratic (oxymoron) nomination, but then again, I didn't think that "Villanova, National Champion" was gonna happen, and going into late Sunday was fully expecting to hear, "Jordan Spieth, back to back Masters Champion". So as Yogi Berra said, "It's never over 'til...".
In the GOP race (true for the Democrats as well, as we'll discuss later), the Cruz team has employed entirely "legal" strategies to effectively "win" the majority of delegates from several states where Trump as won the popular vote. Legal, yes, but "right"? I grudgingly acknowledge that differences of opinion may exist here, and ultimately the difference can be described as a "do the ends justify the means" argument. So I'll leave it to you, gentle reader, to decide where on the continuum you live, but... it's my impression that the majority of voters for whom "Cruz" is not their surname would think that the candidate with the majority of votes should win a given state contest. Notice I said "state". I think opinions may change come Convention time.
Democrats may very well have to contend with this same issue. But in this case they're called "superdelegates". And right now they're all in for Hillary.
Back to Crazytown. Why is this even an issue with the GOP? Thankfully that answer is pretty simple, and leads to my predictions. A majority of sentient life forms (this galaxy or otherwise) don't believe the Donald has what it takes to be President, forget the follow-up discussion that he might be good/bad/otherwise. He's the ultimate loose cannon in a country that generally loves loose cannons. Just not THAT loose. But interestingly enough, I don't think the majority of folks hate the Donald. They just think he's crazy rich out of touch Uncle Don. As some say, "I might be crazy, but I'm not stupid". So let's see if we can find somebody, anybody, that might be better. Like, anyone with a pulse or something.
They do, however, hate Ted Cruz. Hate, hate, hate, it seems to somehow rhyme with "Cruz", via some amazing linguistic magic. I'm a non-fan, but even I have a hard time defining the depth of dislike, but I'm going to try with an old analogy. Ted Cruz is the personification of Eddie Haskell (of Leave it to Beaver fame). Google it. But here's the goofy part (hold on tight, it gets heretical). Senator Cruz has similar qualities to Secretary Clinton. No one doubts that they are incredibly intelligent, with stellar pedigrees and achievements (I guess). BUT... and here's where the blog title comes from, their actions and behaviors, from well before the campaigns, seem to illustrate that they (Clinton [both], and Ted) draw NO line between the concept of "legal" and "right". Benghazi, your-very-own basement e-mail server, and primary delegate maneuvering to offset popular vote results, are just a few examples of where these two candidates have used not-clearly-described-as-illegal rules and interpretations thereof to defend their tactics. I would liken the ethical quandary as the classic, "you find a wallet full of money on a park bench, what do you do?" scenario. Some answer quickly, some less so. It comes down to defining what individuals feel is "right". I'm wanting to know who Bill Belichick ("if you're not cheating you're not trying") supports.
Fun time. What does this mean for the GOP (blogs getting too long for the Dems this week)? Contested convention? Check. There's only once potential scenario I see that gets the Don the nomination. That's if he gets within sight of 1237, and by cutting a deal with Kasich (as VP) he gets to the number on the first vote. That's it. I can't see any Trump/Cruz alliance, and Trump/Rubio seems doubtful as well. Kasich isn't crazy, but the lure of being one step away the brass ring is a "Lord of the Rings" Gollum dilemma. I think it could happen. People get funny when they're near a ton of money or power.
But if it doesn't get settled on the first vote, does Cruz's back office politics get him the nom? Not if he can't get 1237. Yes, he's likely to stack the convention with "supporters", but I suspect that there are enough anti-Cruz folks in the audience that the proverbial "chickens coming home to roost" will deny, gladly, Cruz the nomination. Or, to paraphrase the alternative-universe Sally Field, "They hate him. They really, really, hate him".
But what about party unity? Seriously, I'm not even going to waste bytes answering. No. One. Cares.
Okay, 3rd, 4th, 5th votes. Kasich is viewed as the "nice" guy, just like the "nice" girls in high school. It's a euphemism for "no thanks, we're aiming higher". Sorry, just being honest.
So that leaves us with, yes, my friends, Republican Jesus. Paul Ryan. So above the fray that he is not sullied with malodorous excrement, the House Speaker could potentially create order from chaos, but only if asked (begged) politely. Repeatedly. He has said, "no thanks", then put out this video:
Okay, Paul, you don't want to be PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES! While it isn't a sure thing, the hurdles are easily surmountable, regardless of what 'lyin Ted says.
Next time on Go 'Merica. "What does the Donald Want?". Thanks for reading!
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