Trump. Teflon?

Full disclosure #1: Blogging during the NCAA Men's Basketball final game, Villanova vs. North Carolina. I had neither team in the final. Actually, I don't think I had any final four teams. Or elite eight teams. Or sweet sixteen teams. Point is, my picks, at least in basketball, suck. Take my political musings with a grain of salt.

Full disclosure #2: Night before the Wisconsin primaries, Democrat and Republican. If you're a resident and bored enough with basketball to have found your way to the Blog, I strongly encourage you to vote Tuesday. Like the Blog title, it's a big part of what 'Merica is all about. I'm not even asking who you're voting for. But... if you're undecided, may I suggest Bernie Sanders. He's my guy, and I support him. And you need a state-issued photo ID to vote, courtesy your friends in the Wisconsin GOP.

Back to Trump. In the past week leading up to the Wisconsin primary, the Donald has had a number of episodes of what most in the pundit-sphere would politely term "screw ups", including attacking Cruz's wife's appearance, questioning long-standing US doctrine regarding nuclear proliferation and participation in NATO, and the cherry on top, saying that women who get abortions (if they are ruled illegal) should be "punished". And this is an incomplete list, it doesn't include his "usual" outrageous pronouncements. Yet, despite months of seemingly fatal gaffe after gaffe, Trump's poling numbers, at least up until now, have only gotten stronger, hence the "Teflon" label bestowed by the media. But is it true, is Trump "Teflon" to typical political gaffes? I think tomorrow's contest in Wisconsin may provide some clues.

Prediction time! (it's just under 24 hours before the Wisconsin polls will close, and Villanova just took the lead. Like I said, I'm not batting 1.000, so back to politics). I think Cruz will win Wisconsin, but it'll be close, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Trump won in a squeaker. Why? This relates back to the Teflon argument. I think the majority of Trump voters are not typical Republican voters. Neither "Chamber of Commerce" establishment types, nor are they "values voters", I think many of his supporters are "new populists" that believe that there is an economic recovery amidst, but for whatever reasons they didn't get invited to the party. And who's fault is that? Per Trump, it's Mexicans, bad trade deals, and overall poor negotiating on the part of the United States. Supporters that put "personal economy" at the very top of issues in terms of importance. Unflattering picture of Heidi Cruz? "Well, Melania is better-looking". Punish women who get abortions? "Well, it's only if they're doing something illegal". While I don't doubt Trump is polling underwater with women, imagine if you will a 50-60 something year old (read: post-menopausal) wife of a life-long Oscar Meyer employee who just found out a few months ago that he's losing his job, as OM is moving to South America (actually, it's Iowa taking the jobs, but that's an inconvenient fact) as a consequence of the Kraft/Heinz/3G merger. I can imagine someone like that being angry enough (along with her husband) to stick with Trump despite what they hear in the "lamestream" media. And don't try to confuse me with facts.

Point is, voters rank-order issues differently, and in this case, I think the pundits still haven't figured out the "secret sauce" behind Trump's popularity, and as a result attach labels to them in aggregate, such as "low information voters" or "racists". I'd like to trademark the term, "economic populists". It's more polite, and on a quasi-serious note, I don't believe in demonizing people based solely on their political leanings. And I resist making an exception for Cruz supporters.

So that's my first content-laden blog post. In about 24 hours we'll see if my blogging career looks more like the campaign of Bernie Sanders or Lindsay Graham (who? Google it).

Thanks for visiting. And go vote.