Full disclosure: not intending to be an everyday blogger, but watching Wisconsin returns tonight, in particular Ted Cruz's victory speech, have driven me to both the mute button and the notebook keyboard.
"It's not you, it's me". I don't remember what 80's movie that line is from, but it succinctly captures my impressions of the Wisconsin GOP results. I don't have any impression that the good Republican voters of Wisconsin "saw the light" (evangelical HT) and became Cruz supporters. Rather, consistent with the prevailing media narrative, the Donald really did have THAT bad a stretch leading up to tonight's primary in Wisconsin. But not to forget, as of this evening (9 pm), Trump's still running at 30%, which is double that of Kasich, a candidate who consistently speaks in full English sentences. After Donald's gaffes on abortion and high school US history, it's my contention that the Wisconsin conservative media radio hosts, who already leaned anti-Trump, served as an able mouthpiece in convincing their Trump-leaning audience to turn away from Trump, if only to deny him a clear path to the 1237 delegates needed to claim the GOP nomination in Cleveland. And Cruz was the recipient of that voter largesse. So sorry Ted, it's really not you.
Optics. Bernie notched a solid victory in the Badger State, and may even take the spread to 10 points once all the college precincts report. He's in Wyoming pretending to be Bruce Springsteen, down to the same stump speech/playlist, over and over again. Meanwhile, Hillary is at a fundraiser in NYC trying not to swear like a sailor over the fact that an old socialist Jew with a Brooklyn accent ("Oy vey, now, with the New York primary coming up? Is God also in on the vast right wing conspiracy" - Hillary Clinton) owns the hearts of the vibrant end of the Democratic Party. Two realities stand out with tonight's results and the after parties. First, the reality is that Hillary needs to hit up more and more big money donors to keep pace with the secret hamsters that run the wheels that print Bernie dollars. Second, I can't find a plausible scenario where these same hamsters will run nearly as hard or as fast if Hillary is the nominee. If I were the DNC I would be big time concerned (I'm not the DNC, and DWS is likely not concerned). And "no", I don't think Bernie (or Liz Warren, for that matter) will be VP.
Some simple predictions. Hillary will hit Bernie with the weak NY Daily News editorial meeting, while he'll hit back with the $15 and hour minimum wage "told ya so". It'll continue to be great theater.
Thanks if you're new to the rant. Comments and suggestions and topic ideas are welcomed. Here is a draft of some upcoming topics (subject to change on a whim):
- What does Donald really want? Not a trick question.
- President Paul Ryan, sponsored by Koch (that's not even a joke).
- What moves voters? Conviction.
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